The AI hype train has been slowing of late, with many AI-focused companies, including chipmakers, facing dips in their stock values. Will we see a rebound after Aug. 27, when Nvidia is scheduled for its next quarterly earnings report?
Nvidia earnings reports throughout the last few years have been market-boosting events unlike any others, often propelled by visionary commentary from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang. However, going into Aug. 27, when the company will report numbers for the second quarter of its 2026 fiscal year, the broader AI market is wobbling a bit as Meta reportedly has frozen AI-related hiring. Meanwhile, OpenAI’s Sam Altman, who like Huang often has fed AI hype, sounded more cautionary, telling The Verge that an AI “bubble” could be looming for investors.
Add to that uncertainties more directly connected to Nvidia, such as demand for its AI chips in China and its ongoing ability to sell them there. The upcoming earnings report will be the first since the Trump administration proposed taking a 15% kickback on sales of Nvidia and AMD AI chips to China. During Nvidia’s fiscal Q1 earnings call a few months ago, Huang spent many words lamenting export controls and dollars left on the table in China, but all that talk did little to diminish investor excitement, with Nvidia’s stock price this week hovering around $175 per share, more than $30 higher than it was at the time Huang registered those complaints.
Going into the fiscal Q2 report, stock analysts do not seem worried about how all of the above is affecting Nvidia. Cantor Fitzgerald just raised its NVDA price target from $200 to $240, and other stock watchers raised targets to anywhere between $215 to $235.
For Nvidia’s part, its has stuck to guidance for fiscal Q2 that called for $45 billion, plus or minus 2%, in revenue for the quarter, while the analyst consensus estimate has been for $45.7 billion.
Those expectations are being made with the knowledge that Nvidia is still taking a multi-billion-dollar hit through multiple quarters related to the China uncertainties. So, any further clarity on China could go a long way to determining how Nvidia earnings could further affect the current AI market fluctuations.
Jack Gold , president and principal analyst at J. Gold Associates, told Fierce Electronics, “What I’d be looking for in Nvidia earnings would be how well they are able to sell to China. They took a big hit last quarter due to the essentially elimination of the Chinese market for their H20 chips. Has that eased with the new Trump ‘kickback’ scheme? And will they be able to sell a B20 chip there anytime soon?”
The B20 is the new chip that Nvidia’s has been developing for China, according to a recent Reuters exclusive.
Gold added, “I expect their overall AI sales will still be through the roof as they continue to take advantage of the massive build-outs of data centers geared towards the currently insatiable demand for AI. How long that will last is not clear, but for now at least they are able to take advantage of that dynamic.”