The impact from Trump administration tariffs on shipments of electronics like PCs and smartphones is beginning to be felt and the patterns are not completely consistent.
Take the latest headlines from IDC, where the analyst firm declared this week that it has decreased its worldwide smartphone forecast and separately has increased its PC and tablet forecasts, the latter perhaps a surprise. In both cases, IDC cited tariff uncertainty.
The main cause for the PC increase: manufacturers are rushing to ship larger than anticipated volumes into the US to avoid expected tariffs during a 90 day pause affecting PCs. “The 90 day pause and tariffs exemption applied to personal computers, combined with a definite level of uncertainty on what will happen after the 90 day pause is motivating PC manufacturers to seize the moment and ship larger than anticipated volumes in the US,” said Jean Philippe Bouchard, research vice president at IDC.
IDC said global PC volume will reach 274 million in 2025, up by 4% over 2024. Worsening global economic conditions will impact the PC market in the second half of 2025, however. The migration to Windows 11 has helped PC growth as well.
Over on the smartphone side, global shipments will grow less than 1% in 2025 to 1.24 billion units, IDC said. The forecast was reduced from 2.3% growth back in February due to “high uncertainty, tariff volatility and…challenges such as inflation and unemployment across many regions.”
Even though China and the US are in a trade war, the US smartphone market will grow 1.9% in 2025, down from an earlier 3.3% growth forecast. China will grow 3% as well due to government subsidies that stimulate demand. Apple will decline 1.9% due to ongoing competition from Huawei, IDC said.
President Trump has called for a 25% tariff on Apple smartphones manufactured outside the US, in his attempt to bring more electronics manufacturing to the US. With Apple, he said he has advised CEO Tim Cook to stop expanding manufacturing of smartphones in India.
“Since April 2, the smartphone industry has faced a whirlwind of uncertainty,” said Nabila Popal, sernior research director at IDC. “While current exemptions on smartphones have offered temporary relief, the looming possibility of broad tariffs presents a serious risk.”
In a nutshell, PC volumes will be up more than smartphones in 2025, largely as PC manufacturers rush to beat tariffs.
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