Javier works full time as a Lyft driver working early mornings and evenings in Des Moines, Iowa, where he often ferries office and tech workers back and forth from downturn hotels to the airport just 11 minutes away.
What keeps him entertained and informed in between Lyft rides is his late-model Samsung Galaxy Z Fold mounted on the dashboard of his vehicle, providing enough real estate to watch a video while also monitoring Lyft calls and running a map application.
“I love it,” he said on a recent trip. “I can keep three browsers open at once.”
In its unfolded state, the recently-released Galaxy Z Fold4 stretches 7.6-inches diagonally and 6.8-inches when folded. It also runs a 4nm processor, offering the most power of any chip on a Samsung Galaxy foldable.
Despite its attractions as a smartphone-tablet combo, it costs $1,919, reduced to $800 with a trade-in on several carriers, but is still at the top of smartphone price tags.
For smartphone users like Javier who mix work with leisure, that price is worth it. For others, not so much.
The average starting price for foldables is $999, according to IDC, which limits the capability of the foldable market to grow. At such prices, will foldables becomes mainstream any time soon?
“Unfortunately, the answer is no,” said Nabila Popal, research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Phone Tracker. “To me, mainstream means volume and volume is dominated by cheaper, sub-$400 phones.”
IDC expects foldables to remain niche, premium-priced flagship devices. They represent the future of premium Android devices, Popal added, but will capture less than 3% of global volume by the end of 2026 based on IDC’s updated forecast.
In 2022, foldables make up 1.1% of global smartphone market share, with 13.5 million expected to ship in all of 2022. That’s up by 66% over the 8.1 million shipped in 2021 when the market was fairly new.
For 2026, IDC forecasts 41.5 million foldables will ship globally, a CAGR of 38.7% from 2022 to 2026.
Samsung dominates the foldables space and also makes the Galaxy Z Flip4, a more conventional flip phone form factor. Just about every China-based Android smartphone maker is in the foldables market, while in the U.S., Microsoft makes the Surface Duo 2 and Motorola makes the Razr second generation flip phone, boasting 5G speeds. Google is expected to have a Google Pixel Fold underway at some point while Apple is also rumored to have an iPhone Flip in the works.
Elsewhere, Oppo also makes the Find N and TCL has a Fold and Roll concept. Better known players like Xioami, Vivo and Huawei also have foldables. “There are tons of Android players,” Popal said.
Even though the foldables form factor is a tiny portion of the smartphone market, it has caught on quickly primarily because “it’s the most different thing to happen to the smartphone industry,” Popal added.
Samsung has done well with the Fold model partly because it is advertised as a productivity device, one that business workers can use to view a spreadsheet when needed. It’s easy to change between apps and the hinge is very smooth, Popal said. It can also be propped at an angle for viewing.
“The size is also not too bulky when folded up,” she added.